Risk-opportunity analysis for transformative policy design and appraisal. (September 2021)
- Record Type:
- Journal Article
- Title:
- Risk-opportunity analysis for transformative policy design and appraisal. (September 2021)
- Main Title:
- Risk-opportunity analysis for transformative policy design and appraisal
- Authors:
- Mercure, Jean-Francois
Sharpe, Simon
Vinuales, Jorge E.
Ives, Matthew
Grubb, Michael
Lam, Aileen
Drummond, Paul
Pollitt, Hector
Knobloch, Florian
Nijsse, Femke J.M.M. - Abstract:
- Highlights: Mitigating climate change requires deep dynamic transformational change globally. Standard cost-benefit analysis is inadequate for assessing transformational change. Risk-Opportunity Analysis can assess policy for dynamic economic transformation. Risk-Opportunity Analysis offers holistic systems thinking for climate policy. Abstract: The climate crisis demands a strong response from policy-makers worldwide. The current global climate policy agenda requires technological change, innovation, labour markets and the financial system to be led towards an orderly and rapid low-carbon transition. Yet progress has been slow and incremental. Inadequacies of policy appraisal frameworks used worldwide may be significant contributors to the problem, as they frequently fail to adequately account for the dynamics of societal and technological change. Risks are underestimated, and the economic opportunities from innovation are generally not assessed in practice. Here, we identify root causes of those inadequacies and identify them to structural features of standard analysis frameworks. We use a review of theoretical principles of complexity science and the science of dynamical systems and formulate a generalisation of existing frameworks for policy analysis and the appraisal of outcomes of proposed policy strategies, to help better identify and frame situations of transformational change. We use the term "risk-opportunity analysis" to capture the generalised approach, in whichHighlights: Mitigating climate change requires deep dynamic transformational change globally. Standard cost-benefit analysis is inadequate for assessing transformational change. Risk-Opportunity Analysis can assess policy for dynamic economic transformation. Risk-Opportunity Analysis offers holistic systems thinking for climate policy. Abstract: The climate crisis demands a strong response from policy-makers worldwide. The current global climate policy agenda requires technological change, innovation, labour markets and the financial system to be led towards an orderly and rapid low-carbon transition. Yet progress has been slow and incremental. Inadequacies of policy appraisal frameworks used worldwide may be significant contributors to the problem, as they frequently fail to adequately account for the dynamics of societal and technological change. Risks are underestimated, and the economic opportunities from innovation are generally not assessed in practice. Here, we identify root causes of those inadequacies and identify them to structural features of standard analysis frameworks. We use a review of theoretical principles of complexity science and the science of dynamical systems and formulate a generalisation of existing frameworks for policy analysis and the appraisal of outcomes of proposed policy strategies, to help better identify and frame situations of transformational change. We use the term "risk-opportunity analysis" to capture the generalised approach, in which conventional economic cost-benefit analysis is a special case. New guiding principles for policy-making during dynamic and transformational change are offered. … (more)
- Is Part Of:
- Global environmental change. Volume 70(2021)
- Journal:
- Global environmental change
- Issue:
- Volume 70(2021)
- Issue Display:
- Volume 70, Issue 2021 (2021)
- Year:
- 2021
- Volume:
- 70
- Issue:
- 2021
- Issue Sort Value:
- 2021-0070-2021-0000
- Page Start:
- Page End:
- Publication Date:
- 2021-09
- Subjects:
- Policy appraisal -- Climate policy -- Science-policy interface -- Complexity science -- Evolutionary economics -- Public policy-making
Environmental policy -- Periodicals
Human ecology -- Periodicals
Nature -- Effect of human beings on -- Periodicals
Environment -- Periodicals
Environnement -- Politique gouvernementale -- Périodiques
Écologie humaine -- Périodiques
Homme -- Influence sur la nature -- Périodiques
Environmental policy
Human ecology
Nature -- Effect of human beings on
Periodicals
Electronic journals
333.7 - Journal URLs:
- http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/09593780 ↗
http://www.elsevier.com/journals ↗ - DOI:
- 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102359 ↗
- Languages:
- English
- ISSNs:
- 0959-3780
- Deposit Type:
- Legaldeposit
- View Content:
- Available online (eLD content is only available in our Reading Rooms) ↗
- Physical Locations:
- British Library DSC - 4195.397000
British Library DSC - BLDSS-3PM
British Library HMNTS - ELD Digital store - Ingest File:
- 18909.xml