Assessing recurrence probability for Oso 2014 landslide in order to manage risk. Issue 4 (2nd October 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Mostofi, Azadeh; Gilbert, Robert B.; Montgomery, David R.; Wartman, Joseph
• Is Part Of: Georisk. Volume 13:Issue 4(2019)
• Page Start: 333
• Page End: 340
• Publication Date: 2019-10-02
• Subjects: Landslides -- risk assessment and management -- decision analysis -- natural hazards -- renewal occurrence models -- Oso landslide; Environmental risk assessment -- Periodicals; Hazardous geographic environments -- Risk assessment -- Periodicals; Reliability (Engineering) -- Periodicals; Risk management -- Periodicals; 624.151
• DOI: 10.1080/17499518.2019.1623408
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1749-9518

Abstract

ABSTRACT: In March 2014, a catastrophic landslide in Washington State destroyed a community and killed 43 people. An analysis of the available information using a new approach to manage risk when dealing with rare, high consequence hazards indicates that if the risk for another landslide is accepted, then the expected time between occurrences of massive landslides at this location is about 2000–3000 years, the mean occurrence rate tends to increase with time since the last occurrence, and the alternative of avoiding the risk is preferred if the present worth cost to avoid it (i.e. prevent development) for 100 years is less than about 1/6 the cost of another massive landslide.