Making waves: Defining the lead time of wastewater-based epidemiology for COVID-19. (1st September 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Olesen, Scott W.; Imakaev, Maxim; Duvallet, Claire
• Is Part Of: Water research. Volume 202(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-09-01
• Subjects: Wastewater-based epidemiology -- SARS-CoV-2 -- COVID-19 -- Surveillance; Water -- Pollution -- Research -- Periodicals; 363.7394
• DOI: 10.1016/j.watres.2021.117433
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0043-1354

Abstract

Abstract: Individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, may shed the virus in stool before developing symptoms, suggesting that measurements of SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in wastewater could be a "leading indicator" of COVID-19 prevalence. Multiple studies have corroborated the leading indicator concept by showing that the correlation between wastewater measurements and COVID-19 case counts is maximized when case counts are lagged. However, the meaning of "leading indicator" will depend on the specific application of wastewater-based epidemiology, and the correlation analysis is not relevant for all applications. In fact, the quantification of a leading indicator will depend on epidemiological, biological, and health systems factors. Thus, there is no single "lead time" for wastewater-based COVID-19 monitoring. To illustrate this complexity, we enumerate three different applications of wastewater-based epidemiology for COVID-19: a qualitative "early warning" system; an independent, quantitative estimate of disease prevalence; and a quantitative alert of bursts of disease incidence. The leading indicator concept has different definitions and utility in each application.