Dilemmas in developing models for long-term drought risk management: The case of the National Water Model of the Netherlands. (September 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Mens, Marjolein; Minnema, Bennie; Overmars, Koen; van den Hurk, Bart
• Is Part Of: Environmental modelling & software. Volume 143(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-09
• Subjects: National water model -- Large-scale integrated modelling -- National policy-making -- Regional stakeholder support -- Risk-based decision-making -- Drought risk management -- Dutch delta programme -- Climate change -- Model requirements -- Meta-modelling -- CPU-Time; Environmental monitoring -- Computer programs -- Periodicals; Ecology -- Computer simulation -- Periodicals; Digital computer simulation -- Periodicals; Computer software -- Periodicals; Environmental Monitoring -- Periodicals; Computer Simulation -- Periodicals; Environnement -- Surveillance -- Logiciels -- Périodiques; Écologie -- Simulation, Méthodes de -- Périodiques; Simulation par ordinateur -- Périodiques; Logiciels -- Périodiques; Computer software; Digital computer simulation; Ecology -- Computer simulation; Environmental monitoring -- Computer programs; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 363.70015118
• DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105100
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1364-8152

Abstract

Abstract: Strategic decision-making on long-term drought risk management can be supported by integrated assessment models to explore uncertain future conditions and potential policy actions. Such models have to meet many – sometimes conflicting – requirements posed by policy-makers, model developers, and stakeholders. This paper discusses the case of the National Water Model (NWM) that is applied for national policy-making on drought risk management in the Netherlands. The case demonstrates that the chosen assembled model set-up (in which several existing models are combined) is cost-effective and increases stakeholder acceptance, but also leads to high model complexity and computation time. To be effective for policy-making, integrated assessment models need to produce relevant model outcomes that are accepted by stakeholders, within acceptable time and cost limits. For this, the model set-up must support simulations at different aggregation levels (allowing both detailed analysis and exploratory analysis of many scenario/strategy combinations) while maintaining internal consistency. Highlights: Decision-making for drought risk management requires Integrated Assessment Models. Integrated Assessment Models must meet many – sometimes conflicting – requirements. There is a clear trade-off between model complexity and timeliness. Effective models are those that allow simulations at different aggregation levels.