A Mathematical Modelling of A Multi-Physics Ensemble Approach for Exploring the Sensitivity of Climate. Issue 1 (August 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Gupta, Raj Kumar; MagnoVentayen, Randy Joy; Saravanakumar, R; Salahuddin, Ghazal; Nomani, M.Z.M.
• Is Part Of: Journal of physics. Volume 1979:Issue 1(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-08
• Subjects: multi-physics ensemble -- sensitivity of climate -- Bayesian inference etc; Physics -- Congresses; 530.5
• DOI: 10.1088/1742-6596/1979/1/012014
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1742-6588

Abstract

Abstract: The amount of global surface warming that will effectively respond to twice of atmospheric CO2 concentrations compared with pre-industrial levels is referred to as climate sensitivity. The aim to explore the sensitivity of climate by using the mathematical model of the multi-physics ensemble approach. It's considered as a multi-physics MM5 ensemble of 30 years hindcast simulations run through a complicated and climatically varied area. In this study, eight multi-physics ensembles (MPEs) models were used, MIROC5 physics systems were replaced with MIROC3 physics systems. The analysis is based on a seasonal time scale with an emphasis on average temperature and precipitation values as well as interannual variability. Multi-parameter MPE was made a set ensemble of perturbed-physics in which the parameter value for individual MPE model is swept. The previously evaluated MPE approach can be better understand and improve in the simulation of the multi-physics climate by using Bayesian inference. Bayesian inference allows actions often associated with a post-model flexible project to be incorporated into the model development process. As a result, an ensemble of model configurations has been created, which allows for a more thorough assessment of the remaining uncertainties. The value of model physics is shown by demonstrating that the dispersion between experiments is comparable.