Offsite construction supply chain strategies for matching affordable rental housing demand: A system dynamics approach. (October 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: MacAskill, Stefen; Mostafa, Sherif; Stewart, Rodney A.; Sahin, Oz; Suprun, Emiliya
• Is Part Of: Sustainable cities and society. Volume 73(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-10
• Subjects: Offsite construction -- Sustainable development -- Social resilience -- Affordable housing policy -- Urban systems modelling -- System dynamics -- Prefabrication; Sustainable urban development -- Periodicals; Sustainable buildings -- Periodicals; Urban ecology (Sociology) -- Periodicals; 307.76
• DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2021.103093
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2210-6707

Abstract

Highlights: Affordable rental housing supply and demand is modelled in South East Queensland (Australia). A BAU and OSC supply scenario are compared for their effectiveness to meet demography-linked affordable rental housing demand. Overall, the OSC scenario is found to improve housing supply efficiency by 6.6 %. OSC is better able to match 1, 2- and 3-bedroom apartment demand by 8.7 %, 8.4 % and 9.2 %, respectively. Abstract: Australian housing affordability is influenced by both housing supply and demand factors. These factors include lengthy construction and planning process. The affordability crisis affects the housing rental sector, which accommodates more than 20 % of Australian household. This research developed a system dynamics model to simulate demography-linked affordable rental housing demand and supply in South East Queensland (SEQ). A Prefabricated Offsite Construction (OSC) housing supply strategy is compared with a traditional building approach (BAU) to investigate the effectiveness of OSC techniques to reduce informational asymmetries during development planning stages to deliver better affordable rental housing is linked to housing needs in SEQ. The model focuses on demographic groups housing demand of one, two- and three-bedroom apartment units and examines how reductions in the development process, through OSC methods, influence the efficiency of Government supported affordable rental housing supply schemes. Overall, the study finds that reduced planning and construction timeframes through OSC methods may improve demography-linked rental housing supply by approximately 6.6 % overall compared to BAU in SEQ. For 1, 2- and 3-bedroom apartment demand, OSC strategies are expected to improve supply efficiency by 8.7 %, 8.4 % and 9.2 %, respectively. Optimal OSC strategies were assessed and found that flexibility in development sizes have an outsized positive effect. The study has implications for Government supported affordable rental housing strategies, including the build to rent sector.