System dynamics research of non-adaptive evacuation psychology in toxic gas leakage emergencies of chemical park. (September 2021) - Xu, Shuangyan
Abstract: Chemical industry park plays an important role in optimizing the allocation of resources, but an emergency may make a great deal of personnel casualty and property loss. Many casualties are not the result of accidents but are caused by extreme behavior because of the non-adaptive psychology of the evacuees. Panic is one of the non-adaptive psychological behaviors during an evacuation, which is influenced by a variety of factors. Based on the consideration of the disaster environment and the evolution of crowd emotion, a system dynamics model of panic spread is established by using Anylogic software, and simulation experiments are carried out for different disaster severity, visibility, and groups. The results show that the number of people with severe panic increase when visibility decreases or disaster diffuses. Besides, the appropriate proportion of groups can effectively reduce the cooling time of crowd and ease the fears. However, continue to increase the number of groups has no significant effect on the panic control. This work can provide some reasonable guidance for regional emergency evacuation in chemical park. Highlights: SD model for non-adaptive psychology in evacuation under toxic leakage is established. How the visibility affects the panic spread is quantified. Appropriate groups proportion effectively reduce the cooling time of crowd. The self-calming effect and other-calming effect influence each other.