A multivariate grey prediction model based on energy logistic equation and its application in energy prediction in China. (15th August 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Duan, Huiming; Pang, Xinyu
• Is Part Of: Energy. Volume 229(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-08-15
• Subjects: Grey prediction model -- Energy logistic function -- Grey correlation analysis -- ECGM(1, N); Power resources -- Periodicals; Power (Mechanics) -- Periodicals; Energy consumption -- Periodicals; 333.7905
• DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2021.120716
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0360-5442

Abstract

Abstract: The energy consumption problem is an important issue in the development process of various countries, and scientific methods for predicting energy consumption can assist governments in making decisions. The energy consumption trend usually shows a saturated S-shaped curve, and the mathematical model of the Logistic function can be used to fit this trend. Based on the Energy Logistic equation, a novel multivariable grey prediction model of energy consumption is proposed in this paper. The least square method is used to estimate the parameters of the model, and the approximate time response formula of the model is obtained. The degree of correlation between several energy consumptions is calculated by the grey correlation analysis. Then, from the angle of the three main energy sources to establish the energy consumption prediction model respectively, and the validity of the model is verified by selecting the data of three typical coal, crude oil and natural gas consumption provinces in China (Shandong Province, Heilongjiang Province and Guangdong Province). Compared with the other six multivariate grey models, the results show that the new model is superior to the other models according to five test indexes. Finally, based on the modelling of three provinces in China, the model predicts the consumption of three kinds of energy in the next five years, and a correlation analysis is performed according to the prediction results. Highlights: A novel energy consumption grey prediction model ECGM(1, N) is proposed. The influencing factors of the model are determined by grey correlation analysis. The comparative study shows that the new model is superior to the other six models. The novel model predicts three major energy of typical provinces in China.