Mathematical model, forecast and analysis on the spread of COVID-19. (June 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Mishra, Bimal Kumar; Keshri, Ajit Kumar; Saini, Dinesh Kumar; Ayesha, Syeda; Mishra, Binay Kumar; Rao, Yerra Shankar
• Is Part Of: Chaos, solitons and fractals. Volume 147(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-06
• Subjects: mathematical model -- forecasting -- time series analysis -- COVID-19 -- reproduction number -- quarantine; 92D30 -- 92C60 -- 34D23; Chaotic behavior in systems -- Periodicals; Solitons -- Periodicals; Fractals -- Periodicals; Chaotic behavior in systems; Fractals; Solitons; Periodicals; 003.7
• DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.110995
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0960-0779

Abstract

Highlights: Compartment model susceptible-exposed-home quarantine-infected-hospital quarantine-recovered is developed to understand the transmitting behaviour of pandemic COVID-19 in human population. Local and global asymptotic stability established for the conditions of reproduction number. Statistical Analysis has been performed to analyse the impact of lockdown in different part of the world badly infected by COVID-19 with India. Also time series forecasting model for the case fatality rate in India and time series forecasting of actual cases versus predicted cases in India is performed. Abstract: Pandemic COVID-19 which has infected more than 35, 027, 546 people and death more than 1, 034, 837 people in 235 countries as on October 05, 2020 has created a chaos across the globe. In this paper, we develop a compartmental epidemic model to understand the spreading behaviour of the disease in human population with a special case of Bhilwara, a desert town in India where successful control measures TTT (tracking, testing and treatment) was adopted to curb the disease in the very early phase of the spread of the disease in India. Local and global asymptotic stability is established for endemic equilibrium. Extensive numerical simulations with real parametric values are performed to validate the analytical results. Trend analysis of fatality rate, infection rate, and impact of lockdown is performed for USA, European countries, Russia, Iran, China, Japan, S. Korea with a comparative assessment by India. Kruskal - Wallis test is performed to test the null hypothesis for infected cases during the four lockdown phases in India. It has been observed that there is a significant difference at both 95% and 99% confidence interval in the infected cases, recovered cases and the case fatality rate during all the four phases of the lockdown.