Individual survival time prediction using statistical models. Issue 12 (30th November 2005)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Henderson, R; Keiding, N
• Is Part Of: Journal of medical ethics. Volume 31:Issue 12(2005)
• Page Start: 703
• Page End: 706
• Publication Date: 2005-11-30
• Subjects: AS, actual survival -- CPS, clinical prediction of survival -- PI, prognostic index; prognostic index -- category prediction -- survival analysis -- expected survival; Medical ethics -- Periodicals; 174.2
• DOI: 10.1136/jme.2005.012427
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0306-6800

Abstract

Abstract : Doctors' survival predictions for terminally ill patients have been shown to be inaccurate and there has been an argument for less guesswork and more use of carefully constructed statistical indices. As statisticians, the authors are less confident in the predictive value of statistical models and indices for individual survival times. This paper discusses and illustrates a variety of measures which can be used to summarise predictive information available from a statistical model. The authors argue that models and statistical indices can be useful at the group or population level, but that human survival is so uncertain that even the best statistical analysis cannot provide single-number predictions of real use for individual patients.