Regional Carbon Peak Detection and Prediction – A Case Study on Fujian Province. Issue 1 (July 2021) - Chen, Keren
Abstract: General Secretary Xi Jinping has repeatedly promised the world that "we strive to reach the peak of carbon dioxide emissions before 2030, and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060". As the first national ecological civilization experimental zone, Fujian has the ability and responsibility to become the "pioneer" and "vanguard" of national carbon emission reduction work. This paper analyzes the status of carbon emissions in Fujian Province, makes predictions on future changes in carbon emissions, and analyzes the situation of carbon peaks in Fujian. First, different source data is input into the prediction system to yield a prediction result of Fujian carbon emission from 2021 to 2060. Next, the Theil-Sen estimator is utilized to find the carbon emission trend of the past 5 years. Following this, the Mann-Kendall trend test scheme is applied to verify the "carbon peak" status of Fujian province. Finally, if the "carbon peak" is not reached yet, the slope estimation method provides anxilliary results of reaching "carbon peak".