Life expectancy: what does it measure?. Issue 7 (22nd July 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Modig, Karin; Rau, Roland; Ahlbom, Anders
• Is Part Of: BMJ open. Volume 10:Issue 7(2020)
• Publication Date: 2020-07-22
• Subjects: epidemiology -- public health -- statistics & research methods; Medicine -- Research -- Periodicals; 610.72
• DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2019-035932
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2044-6055

Abstract

Abstract : Life expectancy (LE) is considered a straightforward summary measure of mortality that comes with an implicit age standardisation. Thus, it has become common to present differences in mortality across populations as differences in LE, instead of, say, relative risks. However, most of the time LE does not quite provide what the term promises. LE is based on a synthetic cohort and is therefore not the true LE of anyone. Also, the implicit age standardisation is construed in such a way that it can be questioned whether it standardises age at all. In this paper, we examine LE from the point of view of its applicability to epidemiological and public health research and provide examples on the relation between an LE difference and a relative risk. We argue that the age standardisation in estimations of LE is not straightforward since it is standardised against different age distributions and that the translation of changes in age specific mortality into change in remaining LE will depend on the level and the distribution of mortality in the population. We conclude that LE is not the measure of choice in aetiological research or in research with the aim to identify risk factors of death, but that LE may be a compelling choice in public health contexts. One cannot escape the thought that the mathematical elegance of LE has contributed to its popularity.