Carbon capture and storage (CCS) retrofit potential of coal-fired power plants in China: The technology lock-in and cost optimization perspective. (1st November 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Fan, Jing-Li; Xu, Mao; Li, Fengyu; Yang, Lin; Zhang, Xian
• Is Part Of: Applied energy. Volume 229(2018)
• Page Start: 326
• Page End: 334
• Publication Date: 2018-11-01
• Subjects: Technology lock-in -- First-generation CCS technologies -- Second-generation CCS technologies -- CCS retrofit potential -- Coal-fired power plants; Power (Mechanics) -- Periodicals; Energy conservation -- Periodicals; Energy conversion -- Periodicals; 621.042
• DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.07.117
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0306-2619

Abstract

Highlights: CCS technology lock-in risk of coal-fired power plants in China was considered. The cost of CCS commercialization in different scenarios was evaluated. CCS retrofit potential of coal-fired power plants in China was explored. Suggestions on CCS promotion and avoiding CCS technology lock-in were put forward. Abstract: Carbon capture and storage (CCS) has been discussed intensively in China; however, the CCS technology lock-in risk has been neglected for a long time and may have a negative impact on understanding the CCS application potential. Thus, from the perspective of avoiding a technology lock-in, a learning curve model and a cost-optimization model are employed in this study to explore the total cost of CCS commercialization and the national and provincial CCS retrofit potential of coal-fired power plants in China. The results show that if the second-generation CCS technologies are not commercially applied by 2040, coal-fired power plants in China may face a huge risk of being locked in by the first-generation technologies with a retrofit potential of only 0–143.63 GW (GW = 10 6 kW) and a cost of 13.39 billion USD. Advancing the CCS commercialization time to 2030 can reduce the technology lock-in risk greatly and increase the CCS retrofit potential to 431.01–499.90 GW, which would cost 54.3 billion USD. Considering the cost input, the technology lock-in risk, and the CCS retrofit demand, 2035 is regarded a suitable time for CCS commercialization in China with a retrofit potential of 143.63–431.04 GW and 31.46 billion USD cost input. Moreover, at the regional level, there is a great CCS retrofit potential of coal-fired power plants in Shaanxi, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia. Policymakers should provide greater support for the second-generation CCS technologies and promote them actively in 2030–2035, especially in Shaanxi, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia, to achieve CCS commercialization and control the CO2 emissions of coal-fired power plants in China.