Exploring deep decarbonization pathways for Argentina. (July 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Lallana, Francisco; Bravo, Gonzalo; Le Treut, Gaëlle; Lefèvre, Julien; Nadal, Gustavo; Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolás
• Is Part Of: Energy strategy reviews. Volume 36(2022)
• Publication Date: 2021-07
• Subjects: Argentina -- Deep Decarbonization Pathway -- Low-carbon Transition -- Energy-economy modelling; Energy policy -- Periodicals; 333.7905
• DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2021.100670
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2211-467X

Abstract

Abstract: To align near term action with a deep decarbonization objective by 2050, a long term low-greenhouse gas emissions development strategy is needed and involves drastic changes to the energy system and the AFOLU sectors. To help move forward the policy debate in this direction, this paper explores deep decarbonization pathways for the country until 2050 which break with existing more conservative national scenarios. It uses a combined qualitative-quantitative deep decarbonization pathway method based on the complementarity between exploratory storylines and the quantification of pathways based on linked energy-economy models. The built pathways show how deep decarbonization could be reached in Argentina along with other economic development goals and through contrasted possible routes all involving significant changes to the energy and AFOLU sectors. Remarkably, afforestation stands out as a key sectorial measure for reaching DDP. We contrast two alternative DDP Scenarios with a BAU one with specific focus on CO2 emissions, with emphasis on energy sector demand and supply alternatives. Many of the energy initiatives proposed for the BAU scenario were maintained but increased in ambition and many others were incorporated only in these deep decarbonization scenarios. While the HardPath proposes and requires natural gas use - with CO2 capture and storage - the Enlighten scenario proposes replacing it by hydro-nuclear energy. Finally, in none of the DDP scenarios is the export of natural gas proposed as an explicit energy policy objective, since little space is considered in external markets for fossil fuels, within the framework of a global action aimed at decarbonization. Highlights: A different, more dynamic productive system is a prerequisite for decarbonization. Strategy must give priority to new industrial jobs promoted by local manufacturing. Reforestation, as a key lever for absorbed emissions, requires a feasibility analysis. Energy system savings cannot compensate the primary productive sectors' emissions. The agriculture sector requires more attention for developing mitigation measures.