A deep decarbonization pathway for Peru's rainforest. (July 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Ugarte, Daniel De La Torre; Collado, Mauricio; Requejo, Fernando; Gomez, Ximena; Heros, Carlos
• Is Part Of: Energy strategy reviews. Volume 36(2022)
• Publication Date: 2021-07
• Subjects: Decarbonization -- LULUCF -- Forest -- Equilibrium displacement model; Energy policy -- Periodicals; 333.7905
• DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2021.100675
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2211-467X

Abstract

Abstract: Peru holds an important portion of the South American rainforest. An average deforestation rate of 145, 000 ha a year makes it the largest source of GHG emissions. Based on the drivers of deforestation, this paper proposes a deep decarbonization pathway (DDP) through the year 2050 with the purpose of taking the country closer to achieving the net-zero emissions goal. The impacts of the pathway are estimated using POLYSYS-Peru, an equilibrium displacement model for the integrated analysis of land-use changes and agriculture. The results indicate that the proposed DDP pathway, by preventing the deforestation of 4 million hectares of primary forests, would reduce GHG emissions by an accumulated 1778 Mt CO2 eq. compared to the business as usual scenario, and 497 Mt CO2 eq. more than the Nationally Determined Contributions. Highlights: Develop an Equilibrium Displacement Model for AFOLU sector, to analyze the effects of deforestation drivers. Propose and evaluate a policy package for the forest sector that promotes a deep decarbonization path through the year 2050. The deep decarbonization pathway reduces cumulative GHG emissions by 1778 t CO2eq. compared to the business- as -usual scenario. The deep decarbonization pathway reduces 497 Mt CO2eq Mt more than nationally determined contributions. The deep decarbonization pathway preventing the deforestation of 4 million hectares of primary forest.