Future-proofing conservation priorities for sea level rise in coastal urban ecosystems. (August 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Mazor, Tessa; Runting, Rebecca K.; Saunders, Megan I.; Huang, Danwei; Friess, Daniel A.; Nguyen, Nhung T.H.; Lowe, Ryan J.; Gilmour, James P.; Todd, Peter A.; Lovelock, Catherine E.
• Is Part Of: Biological conservation. Volume 260(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-08
• Subjects: Climate change -- Marxan -- Protected areas -- Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) -- Systematic conservation planning -- Wetlands; Conservation of natural resources -- Periodicals; Nature conservation -- Periodicals; Ecology -- Periodicals; Environment -- Periodicals; Environmental Pollution -- Periodicals; Electronic journals; 333.9516
• DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2021.109190
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0006-3207

Abstract

Abstract: Decision makers are calling for actionable science to protect coastal ecosystems from adverse impacts. Future sea level rise (SLR) is expected to alter the spatial configuration of coastal habitats and their services. Ensuring conservation efforts are in optimal areas can be achieved using systematic conservation planning, yet plans rarely address multiple goals and uncertainties. We developed and applied a novel multi-ecosystem approach for planning the conservation of coastal ecosystems under future SLR scenarios. Decision support tool Marxan was used to determine priority areas that incorporate habitat connectivity, SLR modelling scenarios and feasibility for conservation in urbanised Moreton Bay in Queensland, Australia, as a case-study. We found that planning based on present conditions will not adequately capture conservation priorities for the future, and has associated financial consequences. Priority conservation areas of Moreton Bay are not well aligned with current protected areas (<35%), with further misalignment for future scenarios. This study highlights the importance of a multi-ecosystem approach for protecting coastal habitats as well as leveraging the current management system. Our approach helps inform policy and guides conservation actions in urbanised coastal regions facing SLR. Highlights: Priority areas for coastal conservation change with future SLR projections. Planning for the future has fiscal advantages across the land-sea interface. Multiple scenarios and sensitivity tests identify high agreement priority areas. Current protected areas may not adequately protect critical areas for future SLR.