Mapping and predicting mortality from systemic sclerosis. Issue 11 (23rd August 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Elhai, Muriel; Meune, Christophe; Boubaya, Marouane; Avouac, Jérôme; Hachulla, Eric; Balbir-Gurman, Alexandra; Riemekasten, Gabriela; Airò, Paolo; Joven, Beatriz; Vettori, Serena; Cozzi, Franco; Ullman, Susanne; Czirják, László; Tikly, Mohammed; Müller-Ladner, Ulf; Caramaschi, Paola; Distler, Oliver; Iannone, Florenzo; Ananieva, Lidia P; Hesselstrand, Roger; Becvar, Radim; Gabrielli, Armando; Damjanov, Nemanja; Salvador, Maria J; Riccieri, Valeria; Mihai, Carina; Szücs, Gabriella; Walker, Ulrich A; Hunzelmann, Nicolas; Martinovic, Duska; Smith, Vanessa; Müller, Carolina de Souza; Montecucco, Carlo Maurizio; Opris, Daniela; Ingegnoli, Francesca; Vlachoyiannopoulos, Panayiotis G; Stamenkovic, Bojana; Rosato, Edoardo; Heitmann, Stefan; Distler, Jörg H W; Zenone, Thierry; Seidel, Matthias; Vacca, Alessandra; Langhe, Ellen De; Novak, Srdan; Cutolo, Maurizio; Mouthon, Luc; Henes, Jörg; Chizzolini, Carlo; Mühlen, Carlos Alberto von; Solanki, Kamal; Rednic, Simona; Stamp, Lisa; Anic, Branimir; Santamaria, Vera Ortiz; Santis, Maria De; Yavuz, Sule; Sifuentes-Giraldo, Walter Alberto; Chatelus, Emmanuel; Stork, Jiri; Laar, Jacob van; Loyo, Esthela; García de la Peña Lefebvre, Paloma; Eyerich, Kilian; Cosentino, Vanesa; Alegre-Sancho, Juan Jose; Kowal-Bielecka, Otylia; Rey, Grégoire; Matucci-Cerinic, Marco; Allanore, Yannick;
• Is Part Of: Annals of the rheumatic diseases. Volume 76:Issue 11(2017)
• Page Start: 1897
• Page End: 1905
• Publication Date: 2017-08-23
• Subjects: systemic sclerosis -- epidemiology -- cardiovascular disease -- pulmonary fibrosis; Rheumatism -- Periodicals; 616.723005
• DOI: 10.1136/annrheumdis-2017-211448
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0003-4967

Abstract

Abstract : Objectives: To determine the causes of death and risk factors in systemic sclerosis (SSc). Methods: Between 2000 and 2011, we examined the death certificates of all French patients with SSc to determine causes of death. Then we examined causes of death and developed a score associated with all-cause mortality from the international European Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) database. Candidate prognostic factors were tested by Cox proportional hazards regression model by single variable analysis, followed by a multiple variable model stratified by centres. The bootstrapping technique was used for internal validation. Results: We identified 2719 French certificates of deaths related to SSc, mainly from cardiac (31%) and respiratory (18%) causes, and an increase in SSc-specific mortality over time. Over a median follow-up of 2.3 years, 1072 (9.6%) of 11 193 patients from the EUSTAR sample died, from cardiac disease in 27% and respiratory causes in 17%. By multiple variable analysis, a risk score was developed, which accurately predicted the 3-year mortality, with an area under the curve of 0.82. The 3-year survival of patients in the upper quartile was 53%, in contrast with 98% in the first quartile. Conclusion: Combining two complementary and detailed databases enabled the collection of an unprecedented 3700 deaths, revealing the major contribution of the cardiopulmonary system to SSc mortality. We also developed a robust score to risk-stratify these patients and estimate their 3-year survival. With the emergence of new therapies, these important observations should help caregivers plan and refine the monitoring and management to prolong these patients' survival.