Unequal Opportunity Spreaders: Higher COVID-19 Deaths with Later School Closure in the United States. (October 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Rauscher, Emily; Burns, Ailish
• Other Names: Davis Andrew P. guest-editor.; Rambotti Simone guest-editor.; Hill Terrence D. guest-editor.
• Is Part Of: Sociological perspectives. Volume 64:Number 5(2021)
• Page Start: 831
• Page End: 856
• Publication Date: 2021-10
• Subjects: education -- inequality -- COVID-19 -- school closure -- health -- race -- poverty; Sociology -- Periodicals; 301.05
• DOI: 10.1177/07311214211005486
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0731-1214

Abstract

Mixed evidence on the relationship between school closure and COVID-19 prevalence could reflect focus on large-scale levels of geography, limited ability to address endogeneity, and demographic variation. Using county-level Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) COVID-19 data through June 15, 2020, two matching strategies address potential heterogeneity: nearest geographic neighbor and propensity scores. Within nearest neighboring pairs in different states with different school closure timing, each additional day from a county's first case until state-ordered school closure is related to 1.5 to 2.4 percent higher cumulative COVID-19 deaths per capita (1, 227–1, 972 deaths for a county with median population and deaths/capita). Results are consistent using propensity score matching, COVID-19 data from two alternative sources, and additional sensitivity analyses. School closure is more strongly related to COVID-19 deaths in counties with a high concentration of Black or poor residents, suggesting schools play an unequal role in transmission and earlier school closure is related to fewer lives lost in disadvantaged counties.