Analytic Characterization of the Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2 Epidemic in the United States, 1950–2050. (29th April 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Ayoub, Houssein H; Amara, Ibtihel; Awad, Susanne F; Omori, Ryosuke; Chemaitelly, Hiam; Abu-Raddad, Laith J
• Is Part Of: Open forum infectious diseases. Volume 8:Number 7(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-04-29
• Subjects: genital herpes -- genital ulcer disease -- herpes simplex virus -- HSV-2 -- incidence -- mathematical model -- neonatal herpes -- prevalence; Communicable diseases -- Periodicals; Medical microbiology -- Periodicals; Infection -- Periodicals; 616.9
• DOI: 10.1093/ofid/ofab218
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2328-8957

Abstract

Abstract: Background: We analytically characterized the past, present, and future levels and trends of the national herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) epidemic in the United States. Methods: A population-level mathematical model was constructed to describe HSV-2 transmission dynamics and was fitted to the data series of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Results: Over 1950–2050, antibody prevalence (seroprevalence) increased rapidly from 1960, peaking at 19.9% in 1983 in those aged 15–49 years, before reversing course to decline to 13.2% by 2020 and 8.5% by 2050. Incidence rate peaked in 1971 at 11.9 per 1000 person-years, before declining by 59% by 2020 and 70% by 2050. Annual number of new infections peaked at 1 033 000 in 1978, before declining to 667 000 by 2020 and 600 000 by 2050. Women were disproportionately affected, averaging 75% higher seroprevalence, 95% higher incidence rate, and 71% higher annual number of infections. In 2020, 78% of infections were acquired by those 15–34 years of age. Conclusions: The epidemic has undergone a major transition over a century, with the greatest impact in those 15–34 years of age. In addition to 47 million prevalent infections in 2020, high incidence will persist over the next 3 decades, adding >600 000 new infections every year. Abstract : The herpes simplex virus type 2 epidemic in the United States underwent a major transition, and has been slowly declining. In addition to 47 million prevalent infections in 2020, high incidence will persist over the next 3 decades, adding >600 000 new infections every year.