SEIR Epidemic Dynamics in Random Networks. (12th February 2013)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Shang, Yilun
• Other Names: Finckh A. Academic Editor.; Lancellotti M. Academic Editor.; Zhao R. Academic Editor.
• Is Part Of: ISRN epidemiology. Volume 2013(2013)
• Publication Date: 2013-02-12
• Subjects: Epidemiology -- Periodicals; 614.4
• DOI: 10.5402/2013/345618
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2090-942X

Abstract

Abstract : Predicting disease transmission on complex networks has attracted considerable recent attention in the epidemiology community. In this paper, we develop a low-dimensional system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations to model the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) epidemics on random network with arbitrary degree distributions. Both the final size of epidemics and the time-dependent behaviors are derived within our simple framework. The underlying network is represented by the configuration model, which appropriately accounts for the heterogeneity and finiteness of the degree observed in a variety of real contact networks. Moreover, a generalized model where the infectious state of individual can be skipped is treated in brief.