Modeling the outbreak and control of African swine fever virus in large-scale pig farms. (7th October 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Zhang, Xianghong; Rong, Xinmiao; Li, Juan; Fan, Meng; Wang, Youming; Sun, Xiangdong; Huang, Baoxu; Zhu, Huaiping
• Is Part Of: Journal of theoretical biology. Volume 526(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-10-07
• Subjects: African swine fever virus (ASFV) -- Large-scale pig farm -- Toy model -- Switching patch model -- Control strategies; Biology -- Periodicals; Biological Science Disciplines -- Periodicals; Biology -- Periodicals; Biologie -- Périodiques; Theoretische biologie; Biology; Periodicals; 571.05
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110798
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0022-5193

Abstract

Highlights: We proposed a switching patch model to capture ASFV spread from one initial epidemic pig house consecutively to the whole farm. Spreading process and innocent culling rates of three large-scale pig farms are assessed by model fitting with their data groups, which indicates unnecessarily slaughter all pigs in the farms. We explore how the disinfection and fixation of employees impact ASFV spread in the farms. Some essential requirements for large-scale pig farms are summarized to reduce ASFV spreading risk. Abstract: African swine fever virus (ASFV) leads to a highly contagious, lethal and economically devastating disease among pigs. Since no effective treatment for the disease, it is crucial to investigate its transmission mechanism and control strategies in large-scale pig farms. We first established a toy model to explore ASFV spread in one pig unit. Then a switching patch model was developed to capture its spread from one initial epidemic pig house consecutively to others, even the whole farm. Assessing innocent culling rates of three large-scale epidemic pig farms in Jiangsu Province showed that it is unnecessary to slaughter all pigs in the farms compulsively. Then we explored how the disinfection and fixation of employees impact ASFV spread in the farms. To control ASFV, we can block or slow down its spreading by improving the efficiency of disinfection and decreasing employee population to some extend. We can also shrink potential areas to be infected by properly improving the matching refinement degree among employees and houses. Some essential requirements for large-scale pig farms are presented to reduce their ASFV spreading risk, which can be helpful for animal health authorities in establishing regulation to standardize large-scale pig farms.