Forecasting Megaelectron‐Volt Electrons Inside Earth's Outer Radiation Belt: PreMevE 2.0 Based on Supervised Machine Learning Algorithms. Issue 2 (19th February 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Pires de Lima, Rafael; Chen, Yue; Lin, Youzuo
• Is Part Of: Space weather. Volume 18:Issue 2(2020)
• Page Start: n/a
• Page End: n/a
• Publication Date: 2020-02-19
• Subjects: magaelectron‐volt -- forecast -- supervised learning; Space environment -- Periodicals; 551.509992
• DOI: 10.1029/2019SW002399
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1542-7390

Abstract

Abstract: We present the recent progress in upgrading a predictive model for megaelectron‐volt (MeV) electrons inside the Earth's outer Van Allen belt. This updated model, called PreMevE 2.0, provides improved forecasts, particularly at outer L‐shells, by adding upstream solar wind speeds to the model's input parameter list that originally includes precipitating electrons observed at low Earth orbits and MeV electron fluxes in situ measured by a geosynchronous satellite. Furthermore, based on several kinds of linear and artificial neural networks algorithms, a list of models was constructed, trained, validated, and tested with 42‐month MeV electron observations from Van Allen Probes. Out‐of‐sample test results from these models show that, with optimized model hyperparameters and input parameter combinations, the top performer from each category of models has the similar capability of making reliable 1‐day (2‐day) forecasts of 1‐MeV electron flux distributions with performance efficiency values ~0.87 (~0.82) averaged over the L‐shell range of 2.8–6.6, significantly outperforming the previous version of PreMevE particularly at L‐shells > ~4.5. Interestingly, the linear regression model is often the most successful when compared to other models, which suggests the relationship between dynamics of trapped 1‐MeV electrons and precipitating electrons is dominated by linear components. Results also show that PreMevE 2.0 can reasonably well predict the onsets of MeV electron events in 2‐day forecasts. PreMevE 2.0 is designed to be driven by observations from longstanding space infrastructure to make high‐fidelity forecasts for MeV electrons, thus can be an invaluable space weather forecasting tool for the future. Key Points: Several linear and artificial neural network models are tested for forecasting MeV electron events inside Earth's radiation belt New PreMevE 2.0 model makes 1‐ and 2‐day forecasts of 1‐MeV electron events with high fidelity Relationship between trapped 1‐MeV electrons and precipitating electrons appears to be dominated by linear components