Be Careful What You Wish For: The Impacts of President Trump's Midterm Endorsements. Issue 2 (19th May 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Ballard, Andrew O.; Hassell, Hans J. G.; Heseltine, Michael
• Is Part Of: Legislative studies quarterly. Volume 46:Issue 2(2021)
• Page Start: 459
• Page End: 491
• Publication Date: 2020-05-19
• Subjects: Legislative bodies -- Periodicals; Parlement; Procédure législative; Système parlementaire; Étude comparée (Descripteur de forme); Périodique électronique (Descripteur de forme); Ressource Internet (Descripteur de forme); 328
• DOI: 10.1111/lsq.12284
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0362-9805

Abstract

Abstract : We analyze the effects of President Trump's endorsements on House and Senate elections in 2018. Previous work has argued that presidential endorsements are usually positive or, at worst, neutral for the recipient candidates. We find that President Trump was more likely to endorse candidates with a higher pre‐endorsement likelihood of winning and to endorse candidates in more competitive races, suggesting the president used endorsements strategically both to try and help Republican candidates win and to boost his reputation for helping candidates win. However, while President Trump's public endorsements provided a financial boost to endorsed candidates, they also increased donor support of opposing candidates and were ultimately detrimental to candidates' vote shares and likelihood of winning. This work provides evidence for potential backlash effects among opposition voters in response to presidential endorsement in a nationalized political environment and expands our understanding of the impact of presidential campaigning in congressional midterm elections.