Record‐breaking daily rainfall in the United Kingdom and the role of anthropogenic forcings. (10th March 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Christidis, Nikolaos; McCarthy, Mark; Cotterill, Daniel; Stott, Peter A.
• Is Part Of: Atmospheric science letters. Volume 22:Number 7(2021)
• Page Start: n/a
• Page End: n/a
• Publication Date: 2021-03-10
• Subjects: Atmospheric physics -- Periodicals; 551
• DOI: 10.1002/asl.1033
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1530-261X

Abstract

Abstract: The breaking of the United Kingdom's daily rainfall record in October 2020 made a striking addition to the list of recent heavy precipitation events in the country. Mounting evidence from attribution research suggests that such extremes become more frequent and intense in a warming climate. Although most studies consider extreme events in specific months or seasons, here we investigate for the first time how extremes of the wettest day of the year may be influenced by anthropogenic forcings. Data from large multimodel ensembles indicate that the moderate historical trend towards wetter conditions will emerge more strongly in coming decades, while a notable anthropogenic influence on the variability of the wettest day may be identified as early as the 1900s. Experiments with different forcings are employed to estimate the changing probability of extremes due to anthropogenic climate change in a risk‐based attribution framework. We introduce a new methodology of estimating probabilities of extremes in the present and future that calibrates data from long simulations of the preindustrial climate to the mean state and variability of the reference climatic period. The new approach utilises larger samples of rainfall data than alternative methods, which is a major advantage when analysing extremely rare events. The record rainfall of the wettest day in year 2020 is estimated to have become about 2.5 times more likely because of human influence, while its return time, currently about 100 years, will decrease to only about 30 years by 2100. Compared to a hypothetical natural climate, we estimate a 10‐fold increase in the chances of such extreme rainfall events in the United Kingdom by the end of this century, which underlines the need for effective adaptation planning. Abstract : Daily rainfall observations suggest that the United Kingdom had its wettest day since 1891 on October 3, 2020. CMIP6 models indicate a shift in the distribution of the wettest day of the year towards wetter conditions under the influence of anthropogenic forcings, which increases the likelihood of extremes. It is estimated that without human influence, events like the one in 2020 would occur every 322 years, but their return time has now decreased to 117 years and will further decrease to 33 years by 2100.