Measuring the intensity of conflicts in conservation. Issue 3 (11th January 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Cusack, Jeremy J.; Bradfer‐Lawrence, Tom; Baynham‐Herd, Zachary; Castelló y Tickell, Sofia; Duporge, Isla; Hegre, Håvard; Moreno Zárate, Lara; Naude, Vincent; Nijhawan, Sahil; Wilson, John; Zambrano Cortes, Dario Gerardo; Bunnefeld, Nils
• Is Part Of: Conservation letters. Volume 14:Issue 3(2021)
• Page Start: n/a
• Page End: n/a
• Publication Date: 2021-01-11
• Subjects: armed conflict -- coexistence -- curve -- deescalation -- discourse -- escalation -- spatiotemporal -- stakeholder groups -- stasis -- trend; Biodiversity conservation -- Periodicals; Biodiversity -- Monitoring -- Periodicals; 333.9516
• DOI: 10.1111/conl.12783
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1755-263X

Abstract

Abstract: Conflicts between the interests of biodiversity conservation and other human activities pose a major threat to natural ecosystems and human well‐being, yet few methods exist to quantify their intensity and model their dynamics. We develop a categorization of conflict intensity based on the curve of conflict, a model originally used to track the escalation and deescalation of armed conflicts. Our categorization assigns six intensity levels reflecting the discourse and actions of stakeholders involved in a given conflict, from coexistence or collaboration to physical violence. Using a range of case studies, we demonstrate the value of our approach in quantifying conflict trends, estimating transition probabilities between conflict stages, and modeling conflict intensity as a function of relevant covariates. By taking an evidence‐based approach to quantifying stakeholder behavior, the proposed framework allows for a better understanding of the drivers of conservation conflict development across a diverse range of socioecological scenarios.