Visioning for cultural industries: CLA inspired scenario method. (August 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Ghazinoory, Sepehr; Malekifar, Siavash; Nasri, Shohreh; Kousari, Sahar
• Is Part Of: Futures. Volume 131(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-08
• Subjects: Cultural industries -- Scenarios -- Visioning -- Causal layered analysis -- CLA inspired scenario method; Economic forecasting -- Periodicals; Technological forecasting -- Periodicals; Economic policy -- Periodicals; Prévision économique -- Périodiques; Prévision technologique -- Périodiques; Politique économique -- Périodiques; Economic forecasting; Economic policy; Technological forecasting; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 330.0112
• DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2021.102770
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0016-3287

Abstract

Highlights: There are no clear vision and scenarios for cultural industries. In this paper we try to provide an image of the desired status and scenarios of Iranian cultural industries in 2050. The desired status of cultural industries is an "economic" discourse. Three scenarios can be imagined based on cultural, social, and economic discourses for the Iranian cultural industries. Abstract: Considering cultural industries functions on the one hand, and existing resources in Iran, such as educated manpower and rich cultural content on the other hand, there are significant opportunities for developing these industries in Iran. Nevertheless, there are no clear vision and scenarios for these industries. In this paper we provide an image of the desired status and scenarios of Iran's cultural industries in the horizon 2050 by inspiring Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) method. This method can be used to create vision and scenarios at the same time. Also, content analysis and survey methods were respectively employed to identify different discourses related to cultural industries and select the discourse governing the desired status of cultural industries. Library research and questionnaire are used as tools for data collection. The results show that the discourse governing the desired status of cultural industries is an "economic" discourse, and also three scenarios can be imagined based on "cultural", "social" and " political" discourses for the future of Iran's cultural industries.