Does Machine Learning reconstruct missing sunspots and forecast a new solar minimum?. Issue 3 (1st August 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Velasco Herrera, V.M.; Soon, W.; Legates, D.R.
• Is Part Of: Advances in space research. Volume 68:Issue 3(2021)
• Page Start: 1485
• Page End: 1501
• Publication Date: 2021-08-01
• Subjects: Forecasting sunspot cycles -- Missing sunspots -- Future sunspot activity minima -- Machine Learning; Space sciences -- Periodicals; Astronautics -- Periodicals; Geophysics -- Periodicals; 500.505
• DOI: 10.1016/j.asr.2021.03.023
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0273-1177

Abstract

Abstract: The retrodiction and prediction of solar activity are two closely-related problems in dynamo theory. We applied Machine Learning (ML) algorithms and analyses to the World Data Center's newly constructed annual sunspot time series (1700–2019; Version 2.0). This provides a unique model that gives insights into the various patterns of the Sun's magnetic dynamo that drives solar activity maxima and minima. We found that the variability in the ~ 11 -year Sunspot Cycle is closely connected with 120-year oscillatory magnetic activity variations. We also identified a previously under-reported 5.5 year periodicity in the sunspot record. This 5.5-year pattern is co-modulated by the 120-year oscillation and appears to influence the shape and energy/power content of individual 11-year cycles. Our ML algorithm was trained to recognize such underlying patterns and provides a convincing hindcast of the full sunspot record from 1700 to 2019. It also suggests the possibility of missing sunspots during Sunspot Cycles −1, 0, and 1 (ca. 1730s-1760s). In addition, our ML model forecasts a new phase of extended solar minima that began prior to Sunspot Cycle 24 (ca. 2008–2019) and will persist until Sunspot Cycle 27 (ca. 2050 or so). Our ML Bayesian model forecasts a peak annual sunspot number (SSN) of 95 with a probable range of 80–115 for Cycle 25 between 2023 and 2025.