A 450 million years long latitudinal gradient in age‐dependent extinction. (18th December 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Silvestro, Daniele; Castiglione, Silvia; Mondanaro, Alessandro; Serio, Carmela; Melchionna, Marina; Piras, Paolo; Di Febbraro, Mirko; Carotenuto, Francesco; Rook, Lorenzo; Raia, Pasquale
• Editors: Wiens, John
• Is Part Of: Ecology letters. Volume 23:Number 3(2020)
• Page Start: 439
• Page End: 446
• Publication Date: 2019-12-18
• Subjects: 'law of constant extinction' -- deep learning -- fossil occurrences -- neural networks -- mass extinction; Ecology -- Periodicals; 577
• DOI: 10.1111/ele.13441
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1461-023X

Abstract

Abstract: Leigh Van Valen famously stated that under constant conditions extinction probability is independent of species age. To test this 'law of constant extinction', we developed a new method using deep learning to infer age‐dependent extinction and analysed 450 myr of marine life across 21 invertebrate clades. We show that extinction rate significantly decreases with age in > 90% of the cases, indicating that most species died out soon after their appearance while those which survived experienced ever decreasing extinction risk. This age‐dependent extinction pattern is stronger towards the Equator and holds true when the potential effects of mass extinctions and taxonomic inflation are accounted for. These results suggest that the effect of biological interactions on age‐dependent extinction rate is more intense towards the tropics. We propose that the latitudinal diversity gradient and selection at the species level account for this exceptional, yet little recognised, macroevolutionary and macroecological pattern. Abstract : We developed a new method using deep learning to infer age‐dependent extinction and analyzed 450 myr of marine life across 21 invertebrate clades. We found that extinction rate significantly decreases with age in > 90% of the cases. We propose that the latitudinal diversity gradient and selection at the species level account for this exceptional, yet little recognized, macroevolutionary and macroecological pattern.