Using foresight to explore the impacts of flooding in Houston on health, poverty, and equity out to 2050. (August 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Daniels, Kimberly ''Kay''; Grim, Terry; Morgan, Timothy
• Is Part Of: Futures. Volume 131(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-08
• Subjects: Foresight -- Flooding -- Houston -- Resilience -- Delphi -- Qualitative text analysis -- Cross impact analysis (CIA) -- Cross impact balances (CIB) -- Scenarios -- Scenario archetypes; Economic forecasting -- Periodicals; Technological forecasting -- Periodicals; Economic policy -- Periodicals; Prévision économique -- Périodiques; Prévision technologique -- Périodiques; Politique économique -- Périodiques; Economic forecasting; Economic policy; Technological forecasting; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 330.0112
• DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2021.102754
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0016-3287

Abstract

Highlights: Foresight builds a strategic competency for exploring the impacts of flooding on health, poverty, and equity in Houston. Complex and systemic problems exacerbated by flooding should be considered together as a whole, not in isolation. Scenarios enable people to systematically explore, create, and test alternative future possibilities and decisionmaking. Flooding is an economic development issue; business and workforce wellbeing are integrally connected to resiliency. Abstract: This paper presents a research study that is a valuable first project in setting the stage for bringing a foresight perspective to the impacts of severe flooding on health, poverty, and equity in Houston, out to the year 2050. Drawing on qualitative and quantitative research gathered from methodologies such as the Delphi and Cross-Impact Analysis combined with insights gained from interviews with subject-matter experts, it explores four alternative, plausible scenarios for Houston's long-term future. Exploring scenarios that feature the continuation of present-day trends, a system collapse, a system balanced by a new equilibrium, and a system transformation provides an opportunity for stakeholders and policymakers to work together to create a more inclusive future for all city residents.