Safety challenges for autonomous vehicles in the absence of connectivity. (July 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Shetty, Akhil; Yu, Mengqiao; Kurzhanskiy, Alex; Grembek, Offer; Tavafoghi, Hamidreza; Varaiya, Pravin
• Is Part Of: Transportation research. Volume 128(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-07
• Subjects: Transportation -- Periodicals; Transportation -- Technological innovations -- Periodicals; 388.011
• DOI: 10.1016/j.trc.2021.103133
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0968-090X

Abstract

Highlights: There are common scenarios in which an AV cannot guarantee safety without I2V/V2V communication. Challenges are (i) Occlusions, (ii) Traffic Violation, and (iii) Behavior Prediction Uncertainty. We calibrate a theoretical model with data to estimate crash probabilities for each scenario. Such crashes will occur with high probability even with perfect AV sensing and perception. We discuss how I2V/V2V communication can help AV avoid such crashes. Abstract: Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are promoted as a technology that will create a future with effortless driving and virtually no traffic accidents. AV companies claim that, when fully developed, the technology will eliminate 94% of all accidents that are caused by human error. Indeed, these AVs will likely avoid the large number of crashes caused by impaired, distracted or reckless drivers. But there remains a significant proportion of crashes for which no driver is directly responsible. In particular, the absence of connectivity of an AV with its neighboring vehicles (V2V) and the infrastructure (I2V) leads to a lack of information that can induce such crashes. Since AV designs today do not require such connectivity, these crashes would persist in the future. Using prototypical examples motivated by the NHTSA pre-crash scenario typology, we show that fully autonomous vehicles cannot guarantee safety in the absence of connectivity. Combining theoretical models and empirical data, we also argue that such hazardous scenarios will occur with a significantly high probability. This suggests that incorporating connectivity is an essential step on the path towards safe AV technology.