Can President Biden decarbonize the United States light vehicle fleet? Social-technical compromise scenarios for five automakers. (July 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Galvin, Ray
• Is Part Of: Energy research & social science. Volume 77(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-07
• Subjects: Social construction of the automobile -- CAFE vehicle emission standards -- Biden energy policy -- Decarbonizing road vehicles; Power resources -- Social aspects -- Periodicals; Energy consumption -- Social aspects -- Periodicals; 333.7905
• DOI: 10.1016/j.erss.2021.102104
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2214-6296

Abstract

Highlights: President Biden's stated policy is to decarbonize all light vehicles by 2050. This would involve more e-vehicles and radical changes in conventional vehicles. Reductions in horsepower and weight would clash with social norms for cars. I map possible pathways to achieve the goal with the least possible resistance. I do this for 5 automakers: Ford, General Motors, Kia, BMW and Nissan. Abstract: President Joe Biden's stated policy is to decarbonize the US light vehicle fleet by 2050 and improve on projected Obama-era standards for the years until then. The automobile as a socially constructed artifact is subject to social-cultural as well as technical constraints. The four main routes to decarbonization are reductions in horsepower, reductions in vehicle weight, technical efficiency improvements, and switching to zero-carbon-emission vehicles. The last two of these face technical constraints, and the first two are constrained by deeply entrenched social-cultural attitudes and practices. This paper offers an in-depth analysis of technical possibilities available to five major automakers (Ford, General Motors, Kia, BMW/Mini and Nissan) to progressively decarbonize their US light vehicle fleets by 2020 under these technical and social-cultural constraints. It utilizes fine-grained laboratory-standard vehicle test data on all these automakers' vehicle models for 2011–2021 and in more depth for 2019 weighted by each model's sales. Using the results of regression analyses it models two possible pathways for each automaker, which meet Biden's stated objectives with the least possible offence to social-cultural sensibilities. However, there appear to be no ideal pathways that would achieve credible decarbonization trajectories without substantial changes to the social construction of the automobile.