A Simpler Method for Predicting Weight Loss in the First Year after Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass. (19th January 2012)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Sczepaniak, John P.; Owens, Milton L.; Garner, William; Dako, Farouk; Masukawa, Kristin; Wilson, Samuel E.
• Other Names: Forestieri Pietro Academic Editor.
• Is Part Of: Journal of obesity. Volume 2012(2012)
• Publication Date: 2012-01-19
• Subjects: Obesity -- Periodicals; Obesity; Obesity; Electronic journals; Periodicals; Periodicals; 616.398
• DOI: 10.1155/2012/195251
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2090-0708

Abstract

Abstract : Factors postulated to predict weight loss after gastric bypass surgery, include race, age, gender, technique, height, and initial weight. This paper contained 1551 gastric bypass patients (85.9% female). Operations were performed by one surgeon (MLO) at community hospitals in Southern California from 1989 to 2008 with 314 being laparoscopic and 1237 open. We created the following equation: In[percent weight] = A t 2 - B t, where t was the time after operation (days) and A and B are constants. Analysis was completed on R-software. The model fits with R 2 value 0.93 and gives patients a realistic mean target weight with a confidence interval of 95% for the first year. Conclusion . We created a curve predicting weight loss after surgery as a percentage of initial weight. Initial weight was the single most important predictor of weight loss after surgery. Other recorded variables accounted for less than 1% of variability. Unknown factors account for the remaining 6-7%.