Votes and violence: Electoral vote share and international conflict in democratic states. (November 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Haynes, Kyle
• Is Part Of: British journal of politics and international relations. Volume 23:Number 4(2021)
• Page Start: 717
• Page End: 735
• Publication Date: 2021-11
• Subjects: conflict -- dispute initiation -- domestic politics -- elections -- leaders -- parliamentary democracy -- presidential democracy; Great Britain -- Politics and government -- 1997-2007 -- Periodicals; Great Britain -- Politics and government -- Periodicals; Great Britain -- Foreign relations -- 1945- -- Periodicals; 320.094105
• DOI: 10.1177/1369148120976394
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1369-1481

Abstract

This article argues that the effect of a democratic leader's electoral margin of victory on their conflict behaviour once in office is highly dependent upon the state's institutional structure. I show that, uniquely in parliamentary democracies, governments that win a larger share of the vote are significantly less likely to initiate disputes abroad. Such governments entail broad coalitions that, combined with the ever-present possibility of governmental collapse and new elections, require leaders to pursue a more cautious, lowest-common-denominator foreign policy. This effect is significantly stronger for right-wing governments. Conversely, in presidential democracies, I find that electoral vote share has no effect on a leader's subsequent conflict propensity. Vote shares thus function very differently in parliamentary and presidential systems, with important implications for conflict behaviour abroad.