Does the decision rule matter for large-scale transport models?. (August 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: van Cranenburgh, Sander; Chorus, Caspar G.
• Is Part Of: Transportation research. Volume 114(2018)Part B
• Page Start: 338
• Page End: 353
• Publication Date: 2018-08
• Subjects: Large-scale transport models -- Random Regret Minimization -- Discrete choice modelling -- Decision rules; Transportation -- Research -- Periodicals; 388.011
• DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2018.01.035
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0965-8564

Abstract

Abstract: This paper is the first to study to what extent decision rules, embedded in disaggregate discrete choice models, matter for large-scale aggregate level mobility forecasts. Such large-scale forecasts are a crucial underpinning for many transport infrastructure investment decisions. We show, in the particular context of (linear-additive) utility maximization (RUM) and regret minimization (RRM) rules, that the decision rule matters for aggregate level mobility forecasts. We find non-trivial differences between the RUM-based and RRM-based transport model in terms of aggregate forecasts of passenger kilometers, demand elasticities, and monetary benefits of transport policies. This opens up new opportunities for policy analysts to enrich their sensitivity analysis toolbox.