Evaluation of solar irradiance on inclined surfaces models in the short‐term photovoltaic power forecasting. Issue 13 (19th December 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Liaoliao, Wei; Chenggang, Cui; Ning, Yang; Hui, Chen
• Is Part Of: Journal of engineering. Volume 2017:Issue 13(2017)
• Page Start: 2226
• Page End: 2230
• Publication Date: 2017-12-19
• Subjects: load forecasting -- power engineering computing -- photovoltaic power systems; weather type -- inclined surfaces models -- short‐term photovoltaic power forecasting -- forecasting photovoltaic power -- power systems -- grid stability -- different solar irradiance -- short‐term PV power forecasting -- decomposition -- transposition models -- PV array irradiance -- measured global horizontal irradiance -- short‐term PV forecasting model -- inverter -- final forecasts -- numerous measured power data -- forecasting results -- forecasting accuracy; Engineering -- Periodicals; Engineering; Electronic journals; Periodicals; 620.005
• DOI: 10.1049/joe.2017.0726
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2051-3305

Abstract

Abstract : Accurately forecasting photovoltaic (PV) power is a prerequisite for dispatching of power systems, which is also crucial to grid stability. In this study, an evaluation of different solar irradiance on inclined surfaces models in the short‐term PV power forecasting was reported. First, combinations of decomposition and transposition models were used to estimate PV array irradiance from measured global horizontal irradiance. Then a short‐term PV forecasting model was proposed according to the performance of PV array and inverter, and irradiance on inclined surfaces was applied to the model to obtain the final forecasts. Finally, numerous measured power data from a variety of climates were used to evaluate the forecasting results of five weather types (sunny day, cloudy day, rainy day, fog and haze day). Results suggest that different models lead to different results under the same weather type, and the forecasting accuracy strongly depends on the weather types.