Projected biophysical conditions of the Bering Sea to 2100 under multiple emission scenarios. (24th April 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Hermann, Albert J; Gibson, Georgina A; Cheng, Wei; Ortiz, Ivonne; Aydin, Kerim; Wang, Muyin; Hollowed, Anne B; Holsman, Kirstin K
• Editors: Sathyendranath, Shubha
• Is Part Of: ICES journal of marine science. Volume 76:Number 5(2019)
• Page Start: 1280
• Page End: 1304
• Publication Date: 2019-04-24
• Subjects: Bering Sea -- biophysical modelling -- climate change -- regional modelling; Ocean -- Periodicals; Fisheries -- Periodicals; Fishes -- Periodicals; Marine biology -- Bibliography -- Periodicals; 551.4605
• DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fsz043
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1054-3139

Abstract

Abstract: A regional biophysical model is used to relate projected large-scale changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions from CMIP5 to the finer-scale changes in the physical and biological structure of the Bering Sea, from the present through the end of the twenty-first century. A multivariate statistical method is used to analyse the results of a small (eight-member) dynamically downscaled ensemble to characterize and quantify dominant modes of variability and covariability among a broad set of biophysical features. This characterization provides a statistical method to rapidly estimate the likely response of the regional system to a much larger (63-member) ensemble of possible future forcing conditions. Under a high-emission [Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5)] scenario, results indicate that decadally averaged Bering Sea shelf bottom temperatures may warm by as much as 5°C by 2100, with associated loss of large crustacean zooplankton on the southern shelf. Under a lower emission scenario (RCP4.5), these effects are predicted to be approximately half their calculated change under the high emission scenario.