Novel tool for predicting residual stroke risk in atrial fibrillation: mCARS. (24th May 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Ding, WY; Rivera-Caravaca, JM; Marin, F; Torp-Pedersen, C; Roldan, V; Lip, GYH
• Is Part Of: Europace. Volume 23:Supplement 3(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-05-24
• Subjects: Arrhythmia -- Treatment -- Periodicals; Cardiac pacing -- Periodicals; Catheter ablation -- Periodicals; Heart -- Physiology -- Periodicals; Electrophysiology -- Periodicals; 617.4120645
• DOI: 10.1093/europace/euab116.158
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1099-5129

Abstract

Abstract: Funding Acknowledgements: Type of funding sources: None. Background: Recently, CARS was proposed to predict 1-year absolute stroke risk in non-anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We aimed to determine whether a modified CARS (mCARS) may be used to assess the residual stroke risk in anticoagulated AF patients. Methods: We studied patient-level data of anticoagulated AF patients from the real-world Murcia AF Project and AMADEUS clinical trial. Individual mCARS was estimated for each patient using an estimated 64% risk reduction with anticoagulation. Results: 3, 503 patients were included (2, 205 [62.9%] clinical trial and 1, 298 [37.1%] real-world). In the clinical trial cohort, the median age was 71 (IQR 65-77) and CHA2DS2-VASc score 3 (IQR 2-4). In the real-world cohort, the median age was 76 (IQR 70-81) and CHA2DS2-VASc score 4 (IQR 3-5). At 1-year, there were 40 and 31 stroke events in the clinical trial and real-world cohorts, respectively. Average predicted residual stroke risk by mCARS was identical to actual stroke risk (1.8 [±1.8%] vs. 1.8% [95% CI, 1.3-2.4]) in the clinical trial, and broadly similar in the real-world (2.1 [±1.9%] vs. 2.4% [95% CI, 1.6-3.4]). Additionally, these values were comparable across the subgroups stratified by CHA2DS2-VASc score in both cohorts. AUCs of mCARS for prediction of stroke events in the clinical trial and real-world were 0.678 (95% CI, 0.598-0.758) and 0.712 (95% CI, 0.618-0.805), respectively. In an exploratory analysis, we found that mCARS was able to refine stroke risk estimation for each point of the CHA2DS2-VASc score in both cohorts. Conclusion: Personalised residual 1-year absolute stroke risk in anticoagulated AF patients may be estimated using mCARS. Such patients with high residual stroke risk may benefit from more aggressive interventions and follow-up.