Real-time nowcasting and forecasting of COVID-19 dynamics in England: the first wave. (31st May 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Birrell, Paul; Blake, Joshua; van Leeuwen, Edwin; Gent, Nick; De Angelis, Daniela
• Is Part Of: Philosophical transactions. Volume 376:Number 1829(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-05-31
• Subjects: real-time -- dynamics -- COVID-19 -- Bayesian -- nowcasting -- forecasting; Biology -- Periodicals; Science -- Periodicals; 570
• DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2020.0279
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0962-8436

Abstract

Abstract : England has been heavily affected by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, with severe 'lockdown' mitigation measures now gradually being lifted. The real-time pandemic monitoring presented here has contributed to the evidence informing this pandemic management throughout the first wave. Estimates on the 10 May showed lockdown had reduced transmission by 75%, the reproduction number falling from 2.6 to 0.61. This regionally varying impact was largest in London with a reduction of 81% (95% credible interval: 77–84%). Reproduction numbers have since then slowly increased, and on 19 June the probability of the epidemic growing was greater than 5% in two regions, South West and London. By this date, an estimated 8% of the population had been infected, with a higher proportion in London (17%). The infection-to-fatality ratio is 1.1% (0.9–1.4%) overall but 17% (14–22%) among the over-75s. This ongoing work continues to be key to quantifying any widespread resurgence, should accrued immunity and effective contact tracing be insufficient to preclude a second wave. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.