Zero-Inflated Time Series Modelling of COVID-19 Deaths in Ghana. (30th April 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Tawiah, Kassim; Iddrisu, Wahab Abdul; Asampana Asosega, Killian
• Other Names: Orisakwe Orish Ebere Academic Editor.
• Is Part Of: Journal of environmental and public health. Volume 2021(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-04-30
• Subjects: Environmental health -- Periodicals; Occupational diseases -- Periodicals; Public health -- Periodicals; 613.105
• DOI: 10.1155/2021/5543977
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1687-9805

Abstract

Abstract : Discrete count time series data with an excessive number of zeros have warranted the development of zero-inflated time series models to incorporate the inflation of zeros and the overdispersion that comes with it. In this paper, we investigated the characteristics of the trend of daily count of COVID-19 deaths in Ghana using zero-inflated models. We envisaged that the trend of COVID-19 deaths per day in Ghana portrays a general increase from the onset of the pandemic in the country to about day 160 after which there is a general decrease onward. We fitted a zero-inflated Poisson autoregressive model and zero-inflated negative binomial autoregressive model to the data in the partial-likelihood framework. The zero-inflated negative binomial autoregressive model outperformed the zero-inflated Poisson autoregressive model. On the other hand, the dynamic zero-inflated Poisson autoregressive model performed better than the dynamic negative binomial autoregressive model. The predicted new death based on the zero-inflated negative binomial autoregressive model indicated that Ghana's COVID-19 death per day will rise sharply few days after 30 th November 2020 and drastically fall just as in the observed data.