Development and validation of a risk calculator for post-discharge venous thromboembolism following hepatectomy for malignancy. Issue 5 (May 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Schlick, Cary Jo R.; Ellis, Ryan J.; Merkow, Ryan P.; Yang, Anthony D.; Bentrem, David J.
• Is Part Of: HPB. Volume 23:Issue 5(2021)
• Page Start: 723
• Page End: 732
• Publication Date: 2021-05
• Subjects: Liver -- Diseases -- Periodicals; Biliary tract -- Diseases -- Periodicals; Pancreas -- Diseases -- Periodicals; 616.362005
• DOI: 10.1016/j.hpb.2020.09.008
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1365-182X

Abstract

Abstract: Background: Post-discharge venous thromboembolism (VTE) chemoprophylaxis decreases VTEs following cancer surgery, however identifying high-risk patients remains difficult. Our objectives were to (1) identify factors available at hospital discharge associated with post-discharge VTE following hepatectomy for malignancy and (2) develop and validate a post-discharge VTE risk calculator to evaluate patient-specific risk. Methods: Patients who underwent hepatectomy for malignancy from 2014 to 2017 were identified from the ACS NSQIP hepatectomy procedure targeted module. Multivariable logistic regression identified factors associated with post-discharge VTE. A post-discharge VTE risk calculator was constructed, and predicted probabilities of post-discharge VTE were calculated. Results: Among 11 172 patients, 95 (0.9%) developed post-discharge VTE. Post-discharge VTE was associated with obese BMI (OR 2.29 vs. normal BMI [95%CI 1.31–3.99]), right hepatectomy/trisegmentectomy (OR 1.63 vs. partial/wedge [95%CI 1.04–2.57]), and several inpatient postoperative complications: renal insufficiency (OR 5.29 [95%CI 1.99–14.07]), transfusion (OR 1.77 [95%CI 1.12–2.80]), non-operative procedural intervention (OR 2.97 [95%CI 1.81–4.86]), and post-hepatectomy liver failure (OR 2.22 [95%CI 1.21–4.08]). Post-discharge VTE risk ranged from 0.3% to 30.2%. Twenty iterations of 10-fold cross validation identified internal validity. Conclusions: Risk factors from all phases of care, including inpatient complications, are associated with post-discharge VTE following hepatectomy. Identifying high-risk patients may allow for personalized risk-based post-discharge chemoprophylaxis prescribing.