BALAD and BALAD-2 predict survival of hepatocellular carcinoma patients: a North American cohort study. Issue 5 (May 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Wongjarupong, Nicha; Negron-Ocasio, Gabriela M.; Mara, Kristin C.; Prasai, Kritika; Abdallah, Mohamed A.; Ahn, Keun Soo; Yang, Ju Dong; Addissie, Benyam D.; Giama, Nasra H.; Harmsen, William S.; Therneau, Terry M.; Roberts, Lewis R.
• Is Part Of: HPB. Volume 23:Issue 5(2021)
• Page Start: 762
• Page End: 769
• Publication Date: 2021-05
• Subjects: Liver -- Diseases -- Periodicals; Biliary tract -- Diseases -- Periodicals; Pancreas -- Diseases -- Periodicals; 616.362005
• DOI: 10.1016/j.hpb.2020.09.014
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1365-182X

Abstract

Abstract: Background: The BALAD score and BALAD-2 class derived from bilirubin, albumin, AFP, AFP-L3, and des-gamma-carboxyprothrombin (DCP) are effective in predicting mortality in HCC, but have not been validated in North America. Methods: 148 HCC patients from 2000 to 2015 who had all five biomarkers tested at diagnosis were included. Hazard ratios (HR) were calculated. Results: 75 patients died during a median follow-up of 21.9 months. 1-and 3-year survival rates were 70.8% and 47.6%. 114 (77%) had cirrhosis. The HR (95%CI) for death were 1.24 (0.42–3.67), 1.79 (0.61–5.26), 2.83 (0.95–8.38), and 7.19 (2.26–22.91) for BALAD scores 1, 2, 3, and 4 vs. BALAD 0. The HR (95%CI) for death were 1.25 (0.65–2.40), 1.75 (0.94–3.23), and 6.20 (3.29–11.68) for BALAD-2 classes 2, 3, and 4 vs. BALAD-2 class 1. A multivariate model incorporating maximal tumor diameter, tumor number, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, and BALAD had HR of 1.43 (1.14–1.81) per increase of 1 BALAD score. A similar model with BALAD-2 had HR of 1.50 (1.18–1.90) per increase of 1 BALAD-2 class. Conclusion: BALAD models at diagnosis can predict the survival of HCC patients in North America. AFP, AFP-L3, and DCP reflect tumor progression and metastasis of HCC and distinguish the BALAD model from other predictive models.