The evolution and future perspectives of energy intensity in the global building sector 1971–2060. (10th July 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Zhong, Xiaoyang; Hu, Mingming; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Rodrigues, João F.D.; Lin, Hai-Xiang; Tukker, Arnold; Behrens, Paul
• Is Part Of: Journal of cleaner production. Volume 305(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-07-10
• Subjects: Energy intensity -- Global building sector -- Integrated assessment model -- LMDI -- Decoupling -- Scenario analysis; Factory and trade waste -- Management -- Periodicals; Manufactures -- Environmental aspects -- Periodicals; Déchets industriels -- Gestion -- Périodiques; Usines -- Aspect de l'environnement -- Périodiques; 628.5
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.127098
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0959-6526

Abstract

Abstract: Energy efficiency plays an essential role in energy conservation and emissions mitigation efforts in the building sector. This is especially important considering that the global building stock is expected to rapidly expand in the years to come. In this study, a global-scale modeling framework is developed to analyze the evolution of building energy intensity per floor area during 1971–2014, its relationship with economic development, and its future role in energy savings across 21 world regions by 2060. Results show that, for residential buildings, while most high-income and upper-middle-income regions see decreasing energy intensities and strong decoupling from economic development, the potential for further efficiency improvement is limited in the absence of significant socioeconomic and technological shifts. Lower-middle-income regions, often overlooked in analyses, will see large potential future residential energy savings from energy intensity reductions. Harnessing this potential will include, among other policies, stricter building efficiency standards in new construction. For the commercial sector, during 1971–2014, the energy intensity was reduced by 50% in high-income regions but increased by 193% and 44% in upper-middle and lower-middle-income regions, respectively. Given the large energy intensity reduction potential and rapid floor area growth, commercial buildings are increasingly important for energy saving in the future. Highlights: An IAM-based building energy intensity model is developed for 21 world regions. Low-income regions witness high housing energy intensities and reduction potential. The commercial buildings expect a larger reduction potential than residential. Electricity intensity in buildings generally increases in step with economic growth.