Predictors of Covid-19 case fatality rate: An ecological study. (May 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Alshogran, Osama Y.; Altawalbeh, Shoroq M.; Al-Azzam, Sayer I.; Karasneh, Reema
• Is Part Of: Annals of medicine and surgery. Volume 65(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-05
• Subjects: Covid-19 -- Pandemic -- Fatality -- Predictors -- Ecological study -- Global; Surgery -- Periodicals; Medicine -- Periodicals; General Surgery -- Periodicals; Education, Medical -- Periodicals; Periodicals; 617
• DOI: 10.1016/j.amsu.2021.102319
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2049-0801

Abstract

Abstract: Background: The outbreak of novel coronavirus (Covid-19) has a significant burden on global health and could be associated with significant mortality. Limited information exists about determinants of its fatality worldwide. Thus, this ecological study examined the association of various predictors with Covid-19 fatality. Methods: International data bases of Covid-19 statistics and health metrics available primarily at WHO were reviewed to collect information for 113 countries. The dependent variable was Covid-19 case fatality rate. Independent variables were demographic, social, clinical, economic, heath care and child health factors. Results: Case fatality rate of Covid-19 varies across countries with an average of 4.2 ± 3.8%, and about half of countries had fatality rate >3.2% (median). Significant relationships were observed between Covid-19 fatality rate and socio-economic, clinical, and health variables at the unadjusted regression analysis. At the multivariate adjusted model, percentage of population with age>60 years was positively associated with Covid-19 fatality (B = 0.032, p = 0.005), while Polio-3 immunization at 1-year old was inversely related (B = −0.057, p = 0.017). Conclusions: This ecological investigation highlights the higher risk of death among elderly with Covid-19 pandemic and suggests that Polio-3 immunization coverage among 1-year-olds may be associated with better survival. Future research is warranted to validate these findings. Highlights: Covid-19 pandemic spread globally and associated with emergent mortality. Predictors of covid-19 case-fatality rate are presented among 113 countries. Percentage of people with age>60 years was positively associated with covid-19 fatality. Polio-3 immunization at 1-year old was inversely associated with covid-19 fatality.