Economy-wide assessment of potential long-term impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Sudan. Issue 3 (3rd April 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Siddig, Khalid; Basheer, Mohammed; Luckmann, Jonas
• Is Part Of: Water international. Volume 46:Issue 3(2021)
• Page Start: 325
• Page End: 341
• Publication Date: 2021-04-03
• Subjects: Computable general equilibrium -- Eastern Nile Basin -- irrigation -- hydropower -- transboundary water resources -- Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD); Water -- Periodicals; Water-supply -- Periodicals; 333.9105
• DOI: 10.1080/02508060.2021.1885126
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0250-8060

Abstract

ABSTRACT: The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is expected to double Ethiopia's electricity generation and impact River Nile flows to Sudan and Egypt. We analyse potential economy-wide impacts on Sudan of the GERD's long-term operation using a computable general equilibrium model and outputs of previous studies from biophysical models. Based on a 20% increase in hydropower and an assumed rapid irrigation expansion timeline, the results show that the GERD could help increase Sudan's accumulated gross domestic product (GDP) by US$47-83 billion over the period 2020-60 (excluding initial investment costs and other GERD negative and positive impacts). The choice of crops in new irrigation schemes is key to increasing Sudan's macro-economic benefits.