How to Obtain Long Term Projections for Smoking Behaviour: A Case Study in the Dutch Population. Issue 2 (2009)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Capannesi, Maurizio; Boshuizen, Hendriek C.; Willemsen, Marc C.; van Houwelingen, Hans C.
• Is Part Of: Computational and mathematical methods in medicine. Volume 10:Issue 2(2009)
• Page Start: 155
• Page End: 164
• Publication Date: 2009
• Subjects: state transition models -- restricted quadratic regression spline model -- smoking prevalence rates -- transition rates -- uncertainty analysis -- sensitivity analysis; Medicine -- Computer simulation -- Periodicals; Medicine -- Mathematical models -- Periodicals; 610.11
• DOI: 10.1080/17486700802260101
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1748-670X

Abstract

Abstract : A state-transition model is presented to project the prevalence rates of never, current and former smokers within the Dutch population. Changes are determined by the transition rates among these three classes: start rates, quit rates and relapse rates. Both the initial prevalence rates and transition rates are calculated from cross-sectional data using a restricted quadratic multinomial regression spline and a restricted quadratic logistic regression spline, respectively. Through a Monte Carlo experiment an uncertainty analysis was performed to assess the level of reliability of the results, while a sensitivity analysis was carried out in order to detect the input variables that mostly contribute to the output variability. The results obtained through this model show a considerable but rather slow decrease of smokers up to year 2050.