Evaluation of work resumption strategies after COVID-19 reopening in the Chinese city of Shenzhen: a mathematical modeling study. (April 2021) - Bai, Lu
Abstract: Objectives: As China is facing a potential second wave of the epidemic, we reviewed and evaluated the intervention measures implemented in a major metropolitan city, Shenzhen, during the early phase of Wuhan lockdown. Study design: Based on the classic SEITR model and combined with population mobility, a compartmental model was constructed to simulate the transmission of COVID-19 and disease progression in the Shenzhen population. Methods: Based on published epidemiological data on COVID-19 and population mobility data from Baidu Qianxi, we constructed a compartmental model to evaluate the impact of work and traffic resumption on the epidemic in Shenzhen in various scenarios. Results: Imported cases account for most (58.6%) of the early reported cases in Shenzhen. We demonstrated that with strict inflow population control and a high level of mask usage after work resumption, various resumptions resulted in only an insignificant difference in the number of cumulative infections. Shenzhen may experience this second wave of infections approximately two weeks after the traffic resumption if the incidence risk in Hubei is high at the moment of resumption. Conclusion: Regardless of the work resumption strategy adopted in Shenzhen, the risk of a resurgence of COVID-19 after its reopening was limited. The strict control of imported cases and extensive use of facial masks play a key role in COVID-19 prevention. Highlights: With strict inflow population control measures and a high facial mask usage in Shenzhen, differences in the number of infections between various resumption schemes are insignificant. If the incidence risk in Hubei is high at the moment of resumption, Shenzhen may experience a second wave of infections approximately two weeks after traffic resumption. The strict control of imported cases and extensive use of facial masks play a key role in COVID-19 prevention.