Community venue exposure risk estimator for the COVID-19 pandemic. (November 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Sun, Ziheng; Di, Liping; Sprigg, William; Tong, Daniel; Casal, Mariana
• Is Part Of: Health & place. Volume 66(2020:Nov.)
• Publication Date: 2020-11
• Subjects: Exposure risk -- COVID-19 pandemic -- Probability -- Birthday paradox -- Risk mapping; Health -- Social aspects -- Periodicals; Health services accessibility -- Periodicals; Public health -- Periodicals; Political planning -- Periodicals; Social medicine -- Periodicals; Epidemiology -- Periodicals; Health Policy -- Periodicals; Health Services Accessibility -- Periodicals; Public Health -- Periodicals; Public Policy -- Periodicals; Sociology, Medical -- Periodicals; Épidémiologie -- Périodiques; Politique sanitaire -- Périodiques; Santé, Services de -- Accessibilité -- Périodiques; Health services accessibility; Health -- Social aspects; Political planning; Public health; Social medicine; Periodicals; 613
• DOI: 10.1016/j.healthplace.2020.102450
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1353-8292

Abstract

Abstract: Complexities of virus genotypes and the stochastic contacts in human society create a big challenge for estimating the potential risks of exposure to a widely spreading virus such as COVID-19. To increase public awareness of exposure risks in daily activities, we propose a birthday-paradox-based probability model to implement in a web-based system, named COSRE (community social risk estimator) and make in-time community exposure risk estimation during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. We define exposure risk to mean the probability of people meeting potential cases in public places such as grocery stores, gyms, libraries, restaurants, coffee shops, offices, etc. Our model has three inputs: the real-time number of active and asymptomatic cases, the population in local communities, and the customer counts in the room. With COSRE, possible impacts of the pandemic can be explored through spatiotemporal analysis, e.g., a variable number of people may be projected into public places through time to assess changes of risk as the pandemic unfolds. The system has potential to advance understanding of the true exposure risks in various communities. It introduces an objective element to plan, prepare and respond during a pandemic. Spatial analysis tools are used to draw county-level exposure risks of the United States from April 1 to July 15, 2020. The correlation experiment with the new cases in the next two weeks shows that the risk estimation model offers promise in assisting people to be more precise about their personal safety and control of daily routine and social interaction. It can inform business and municipal COVID-19 policy to accelerate recovery. Highlights: A birthday-paradox-based probability model is proposed for estimating the community exposure risks in pandemics. A web system named COSRE is implemented to calculate the daily risks of each U.S. county in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The score successfully shows early sign of outbreaks in COVID hot spots like Navajo Nation, New York, Georgia and Louisiana. Spatial correlation analysis shows the proposed score has significant positive relationship with new cases in next two weeks.