Application of simulation modeling for wildfire exposure and transmission assessment in Sardinia, Italy. (May 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Salis, Michele; Arca, Bachisio; Del Giudice, Liliana; Palaiologou, Palaiologos; Alcasena-Urdiroz, Fermin; Ager, Alan; Fiori, Michele; Pellizzaro, Grazia; Scarpa, Carla; Schirru, Matilde; Ventura, Andrea; Casula, Marcello; Duce, Pierpaolo
• Is Part Of: International journal of disaster risk reduction. Volume 58(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-05
• Subjects: Wildfire modeling -- Burn probability -- MTT algorithm -- Wildfire management -- Mediterranean areas; Emergency management -- Periodicals; Risk management -- Periodicals; Disaster relief -- Periodicals; Hazard mitigation -- Periodicals; 363.34
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102189
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2212-4209

Abstract

Abstract: The development of comprehensive fire management and risk assessment strategies is of prominent concern in Southern Europe, due to the expanding scale of wildfire risk. In this work, we applied simulation modeling to analyze fine-scale (100-m resolution) wildfire exposure and risk transmission in the 24, 000 km 2 island of Sardinia (Italy). Sardinia contains a variety of ecological, cultural, anthropic and touristic resources that each summer are threatened by wildfires, and represents well the Mediterranean Basin environments and conditions. Wildfire simulations based on the minimum travel time algorithm were used to characterize wildfire exposure and risk transmission in terms of annual burn probability, flame length, structures exposed and type and amount of transmission. We focused on the historical conditions associated with large (>50 ha) and very large (>200 ha) wildfires that occurred in Sardinia in the period 1998–2016, and combined outputs from wildfire simulation modeling with land uses, building footprint locations, weather, and historical ignition data. The outputs were summarized for weather zones, main wind scenarios and land uses. Our study characterized spatial variations in wildfire spread, exposure and risk transmission among and within weather zones and the main winds associated with large events. This work provides a novel quantitative approach to inform wildfire risk management and planning in Mediterranean areas. The proposed methodology can serve as reference for wildfire risk assessment and can be replicated elsewhere. Findings can be used to better understand the spatial dynamics and patterns of wildfire risk and evaluate expected wildfire behavior or transmission potential in Sardinia and neighboring regions. Graphical abstract: Image 1 Highlights: We characterized wildfire potential replicating conditions associated with large events. We applied the MTT algorithm for modeling wildfire spread and behavior. We analyzed fine-scale wildfire exposure and transmission in a Mediterranean area. Fire exposure and transmission vary among and within weather zones and with the main winds. Simulation modeling can support wildfire management and prevention strategies.