A phenomenological estimate of the true scale of CoViD-19 from primary data. (May 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Palatella, Luigi; Vanni, Fabio; Lambert, David
• Is Part Of: Chaos, solitons and fractals. Volume 146(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-05
• Subjects: Renewal equation -- Scale of epidemics -- SARS-CoV2 prevalence; Chaotic behavior in systems -- Periodicals; Solitons -- Periodicals; Fractals -- Periodicals; Chaotic behavior in systems; Fractals; Solitons; Periodicals; 003.7
• DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.110854
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0960-0779

Abstract

Abstract: Estimation of the prevalence of undocumented SARS-CoV-2 infections is critical for understanding the overall impact of CoViD-19, and for implementing effective public policy intervention strategies. We discuss a simple yet effective approach to estimate the true number of people infected by SARS-CoV-2, using raw epidemiological data reported by official health institutions in the largest EU countries and the USA.