How changes in worldwide operating conditions affect solar cell performance. (15th May 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Peters, Ian Marius; Buonassisi, Tonio
• Is Part Of: Solar energy. Volume 220(2021)
• Page Start: 671
• Page End: 679
• Publication Date: 2021-05-15
• Subjects: Temperature dependence -- Modelling -- Silicon solar cell -- Performance ratio; Solar energy -- Periodicals; Solar engines -- Periodicals; 621.47
• DOI: 10.1016/j.solener.2021.01.017
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0038-092X

Abstract

Highlights: In this article we analyze and quantify the impact of variations in global operating conditions on photovoltaic (PV) power generation and performance ratios around the planet using historic data between 2006 and 2015. We find that, for this period, coincidental changes in temperature and other parameters like humidity and aerosol concentrations resulted in an on average 15% stronger variation in silicon solar cell performance than what the temperature coefficient alone suggests. As an application of this finding, we project how solar cell performance ratios would change towards the end of the 21st century, utilizing various global warming scenarios. We find that the performance ratios of silicon solar cells of current state of the art would drop between 0.7% and 2.5% on global average, depending on the warming scenario. Abstract: In field operation, solar cells are exposed to constantly changing operating conditions. These changing conditions have an impact on energy yield. Present-day yield predictions mostly use linear correction coefficients derived from lab experiments. These corrections neglect interactions between meteorological parameters like temperature and humidity. In this study, we reverse this approach by analyzing simulated solar cell performance under varying conditions worldwide. We use meteorological data measured between 2006 and 2015 to establish trends in the development of meteorological conditions and solar cell performance. From these two trends, we obtain linear correlation coefficients. The obtained implied temperature coefficient, on average, has a value of −0.52 ± 0.03%/K. This value is 15% higher than the tabulated temperature coefficient (−0.45%/K) used in the simulation, demonstrating the impact of coinciding meteorological factors. Light absorption due to elevated humidity levels is likely the strongest contributor to the deviation. One application of these findings is a projection of how today's crystalline silicon solar panels would perform due to rising temperature at the end of the 21st century. Using the established implied temperature coefficient, we project performance reductions of between 0.7% and 2.5%, depending on the warming scenario. The effect is reduced in higher efficient, upcoming photovoltaic technologies, providing further motivation to develop and improve these solar cells.